Returns

Return framework

Illustrative project-yield scenarios and a calculator that makes assumptions visible rather than presenting a guaranteed outcome.

What the sponsor states

The business plan estimates a return of approximately 8%–18% from the third year. The investment presentation highlights 18% as a maximum annual return. These are project-level sponsor projections; the documents do not define the final investor coupon, dividend policy, equity percentage or exit proceeds.

What determines the investor’s actual return

  • Whether the instrument is debt, mezzanine, preferred equity or ordinary equity.
  • Funding date, construction draw schedule and the date from which return accrues.
  • Security ranking, loan-to-value, guarantees and covenant protection.
  • Actual construction cost, opening date, occupancy, room rate and operating margin.
  • Refinancing or sale timing, transaction fees, tax and dilution.
Illustrative calculator

Model a gross scenario

Illustrative annual return—
5-year simple total—
5-year compounded gain—

The compounded figure assumes annual reinvestment at the same rate, which is not stated in the sponsor documents and may not be available.

Scenario interpretation

Three return cases—one due-diligence standard.

8%Use as a lower project-level illustration. Still requires confirmation of cost, timing and operating margin.
12%A neutral modelling midpoint created for comparison, not a sponsor forecast in its own right.
18%The upper sponsor projection. Investors should stress-test downside rather than anchor on the maximum.
No guarantee: the calculator is an educational aid and does not constitute an offer, forecast of investor distributions or recommendation.